Narrow Leads and Shifting Dynamics Recent Polls Show Biden and Trump in Close Presidential Contention

by Jessica

Two recently released U.S.-wide polls indicate that in a potential presidential contest, Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over Donald Trump. This marks a notable improvement for the Democratic incumbent after three national polls previously placed him behind the Republican frontrunner.

The polls, conducted by Ipsos and YouGov, show Biden with a lead ranging between one and two percentage points. However, a Newsweek analysis earlier this month suggested that Trump’s stronger performance in key swing states positions him for a potential second White House term.

On January 15, Trump secured a decisive victory in the Iowa Republican caucus, capturing 51 percent of the vote. This surpassed Governor Ron DeSantis at 21.2 percent, Nikki Haley at 19.1 percent, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 7.7 percent, who subsequently exited the race and endorsed Trump.

The Ipsos survey, polling 3,815 registered voters from January 3 to 9 for Reuters, showed Biden as the preferred choice for 40 percent of voters, compared to Trump’s 38 percent when considering only these two candidates. Another 10 percent expressed support for “some other candidate.” When third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was included, Biden and Trump dropped to 34 percent and 33 percent, respectively, with the vaccine-skeptic independent garnering 17 percent.

The survey revealed Biden’s popularity among younger voters, winning the 18-29 demographic by 56 percent to 29 percent. In contrast, Trump led among voters aged 65 and older by 51 percent to 40 percent. While Biden had a substantial lead among female voters (46 percent to 38 percent), Trump held a six-point advantage among male voters.

In terms of race, Trump led Biden among white voters (50 percent to 39 percent), while Biden led with Black and Hispanic voters, with margins of 57 percent versus 18 percent and 50 percent versus 31 percent, respectively.

As primary voters in New Hampshire head to the polls on January 23, a recent Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and NBC poll gives Trump a 16-point lead over second-placed Haley. This contrasts with an American Research Group poll conducted between December 27 and January 3, which had Trump leading the former South Carolina governor by just four percent.

Recent polls in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state where Biden was born, also indicate Trump’s advantage. A Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll shows the Republican frontrunner ahead by 40 percent to 39 percent, while a Quinnipiac University survey gives Trump 49 percent against 46 percent for the Democratic incumbent.

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