Eurasia Group’s Annual Report: U.S. Presidential Election Looms as Global Risk in 2024
In its yearly assessment, political risk consultancy Eurasia Group has pinpointed the U.S. presidential election as the predominant global risk for 2024, irrespective of the election’s outcome. With Donald Trump facing legal challenges, including numerous felony charges related to his actions during his presidency and efforts to overturn the 2020 election, the electoral landscape is undergoing a dynamic transformation, introducing a complex and potentially volatile scenario.
Amidst Trump’s legal battles, the electoral landscape introduces a volatile element to political dynamics. The report underscores the crucial importance of acknowledging challenges to address foundational issues emerging in the current electoral process.
“The US presidential election will worsen the country’s political division, testing American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years and undermining US credibility on the global stage. The US political system is remarkably divided, and its legitimacy and functionality have eroded accordingly. Public trust in core institutions — such as Congress, the judiciary, and the media — is at historic lows; polarization and partisanship are at historic highs,” the report stated, according to HuffPost.
“In any stable, well-functioning democracy, the 2024 contest would be principally about those [issues],” the report continued. “The United States is presently far from that. On the other side of the aisle, President Joe Biden would be 86 years old at the end of his second term. The vast majority of Americans want neither to lead the nation. This division will worsen in the run-up to the election.”
The US democracy “is a democracy in crisis,” Eurasia Group Founder @ianbremmer says. “The political environment in the US is more dysfunctional by a long margin than any of the other advanced industrial democracies.” pic.twitter.com/AH7wKq5lDJ
Eurasia Group’s projections anticipate that, in the event of defeat, Trump, aware of potential legal consequences, will leverage his influential online presence, control over the Republican Party, and support from sympathetic media outlets to challenge the legitimacy of legal proceedings against him and cast doubt on the election’s integrity. The report notes, “Knowing he faces prison time if he loses in November, Trump will use his online pulpit, control of the Republican Party, and friendly media to delegitimize both the system that is prosecuting him and the integrity of the election.”
The report further states, “His victim narrative and preemptive claims of fraud will find a receptive audience of Americans who agree, putting implicit pressure on Republican state governments and election officials to manage the election in ways that would benefit him (such as by purging voter rolls more liberally or tightening voting restrictions). While these efforts are unlikely to overturn the electoral process, they may well disrupt it.”
Moreover, the report predicts that if Trump wins the election, Biden will concede, but if Trump loses, he won’t accept defeat. Instead, he will use all available means, legal or illegal, to contest the outcome and impugn the legitimacy of the process. The report ranks the expansion and escalation of the Middle East war as the second-highest risk, followed by the Russia-Ukraine war in third place, and the fourth risk is the implications of ungoverned artificial intelligence.