2024 Rematch Trump Narrows Gap Against Biden in Virginia, Mason-Dixon Poll Reveals

by Jessica

In a potential 2024 rematch, a recent Mason-Dixon Poll indicates that former President Donald Trump is closing in on President Joe Biden in Virginia. Published by Newsmax on January 5, 2024, the poll shows Biden leading Trump by 49% to 43%, with 8% of voters still undecided.

This shift is significant given Biden’s 10-point victory over Trump in Virginia during the 2020 election, where Democrats have consistently prevailed in the past four presidential elections. The Mason-Dixon survey, conducted from December 15 to 19, 2023, with 625 registered voters, reveals a tightening race, particularly in urban and suburban areas.

In the “urban crescent,” which includes Northern Virginia, the Richmond metro area, and Hampton Roads, Biden maintains a strong lead:

  • Northern Virginia: Biden leads Trump 63% to 27%
  • Hampton Roads: Biden secures a lead of 59% to 35%
  • Richmond metro area: Biden leads Trump 53% to 38%

However, Trump shows higher support in regions extending from Roanoke to the Southwest, as well as the Central/Shenandoah and Lynchburg/Southside areas. Notably, self-described independents favor Trump with 46% compared to Biden’s 41%, with 13% undecided.

The survey delves into Biden’s job approval, revealing an even split with 49% approving, 49% disapproving, and 2% uncertain. Despite a seemingly divided job approval, Biden outperformed his numbers against Trump, with key groups such as younger voters, women, and Black voters still favoring him.

Brad Coker, CEO of Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, points out a paradoxical trend in Biden’s approval ratings and election performance. While speculation surrounds Biden’s losing support in his Democratic base, the poll suggests a nuanced political setting, as seen in the approval rating of GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin standing at 58% in December.

The findings reflect a dynamic and evolving political landscape in Virginia, hinting at a competitive rematch between Biden and Trump in 2024. As the race tightens, these numbers offer valuable insights into the shifting sentiments of Virginian voters.

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